Net investment income is projected to jump 24.9$ to $12.9b in fiscal 2026.
Dai-ichi Life’s policy cancellation rates remain steady despite rising yen interest rates, with only a slight increase in exits from lump-sum products.
Morningstar attributes this to Dai-ichi Life’s higher exposure to protection products, which tend to have lower surrender risk.
Over the longer term, overseas profit is targeted to reach $2.3b (¥350b) by fiscal 2030, compared with $1.3b (¥200b) in fiscal 2025.
Morningstar expects return on tangible equity to improve to around 12% by fiscal 2027 and remain around that level toward 2030.
Dai-ichi Life expects stronger investment returns to lift earnings into fiscal 2026, supported by higher bond yields and increased equity sales, according to a Morningstar analyst note dated 17 February 2026.
The insurer raised its adjusted profit guidance for the year ending March 2026 by $0.2b (¥30b) to $3.3b (¥500b) after reporting December profit of $2.7b (¥422b). Interim profit has already reached 90% of its full-year target.
Morningstar expects the positive spread — the gap between investment returns and guaranteed policy rates — to widen further in fiscal 2026 as long-term Japanese bond yields rise.
Net investment income is forecast to increase 24.9% in fiscal 2026 to $12.9b (¥1,980b), up from $10.3b (¥1,586b) in fiscal 2025. Investment yield is projected to rise to 3.2% from 2.7%.
Total revenue is expected to grow 4.8% in fiscal 2026 to $36.1b (¥5,552b), whilst net earned premiums are forecast to increase 5.0% to $23.2b (¥3,572b).
($1.00 = ¥154.90)