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Jefferies warns policy growth lags Hong Kong premium surge

Brokers became the largest channel for Manulife and FWD.

Hong Kong’s life insurance market continued to record broad-based growth in the first quarter of 2026, with agents remaining the main driver of new business despite strong contributions from bancassurance and brokers, according to a Jefferies research report.

The report, based on regulatory filings from Hong Kong’s largest life insurers, found that direct individual new business premiums rose 47% year on year in the first quarter. 

Growth was spread across all major distribution channels, with agent sales increasing 39%, bancassurance 59% and broker-distributed premiums 30%.

Jefferies said agents continue to be a reliable source of long-term growth. Amongst listed insurers, AIA’s agent channel recorded a 44% increase in new business premiums, whilst Manulife’s grew 102% and FWD’s rose 26%. Prudential’s agent business grew 1%, although the insurer has identified accelerating growth in the channel as a key priority.

Bancassurance also remained an important source of new business, although the report noted that sales through banks have been more volatile. 

HSBC’s bancassurance business posted 100% growth in the first quarter, whilst Manulife’s increased 122% and FWD’s rose 27%. Hang Seng was the exception, reporting a 10% decline.

Broker-distributed business also expanded, with premiums rising 30% year on year. Jefferies noted that brokers have become the largest distribution channel for both Manulife and FWD, with premium growth of 101% and 16%, respectively.

Despite the strong rise in premiums, policy growth remained subdued. New policy counts increased by just 2% year on year in the first quarter, compared with a 45% increase in average premium per policy.

Jefferies said the figures suggest that demand for higher-value insurance products, rather than higher sales productivity, has been the main driver of premium growth. 

Although premium per agent has increased, the report found little evidence that the number of policies sold per agent has improved.

The research also suggested that the trend could signal a shift in asset allocation by customers in Hong Kong and mainland China, with more savings moving from property and bank deposits into life insurance and other financial investments.

Jefferies said the strong and broad-based expansion of the Hong Kong life insurance market means overall market growth is currently more important than competition for market share between insurers or distribution channels.
 

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